Sunday, June 7, 2009

JPMorgan predicts dramatic Hybrid Sales increase

Critical mass, as stated by Merriam Webster, is a size, number, or amount large enough to produce a particular result. Have hybrid vehicle sales reached such a number? Or maybe it’s more of a tipping point. Author Malcolm Gladwell, who wrote “The Tipping Point: How Little Things Can Make a Big Difference,” considers tipping points "the levels at which the momentum for change becomes unstoppable." Or possibly it comes down to marketing? We tend to eat what we’re being fed. Whatever the reason, hybrid electric vehicles (HEV) are not only here to stay, but according to a survey just conducted by JPMorgan, they’ll soon take off in a very big way.

Globally, more than 480,000 HEVs were sold in 2008, a number that represents 1% of totally vehicle sales. By 2020, however, JPMorgan estimates that a worldwide total of 11.28 million hybrid vehicles will be sold each year, boosting HEV sales up to 13%. US hybrid sales are expected to reach 20% of total vehicles purchased by this date, so therefore we can expect similar results in Canada.

How did JPMorgan arrive at their findings? The calculative process is no doubt locked away in a sealed vault along with whatever’s in the “secret sauce” and KFC’s original chicken recipe, but the study does suggest that hybrid sales will be heavily influenced by government pressure on manufacturers to produce fuel efficient vehicles to reduce dependence on foreign oil and limit tailpipe emissions, plus an overall reduction in the price of hybrid technologies.

Whichever way you look at it, a hybrid could be in your future.

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